Whether it’s Google’s fault or not, the web is getting smarter. The technology itself is moving toward a place where it understands more about who you are as a user, and what it’s showing you inside of your browser. Years from now these developments will have a profound effect on web experience for users, and it will have a profound effect on the economics of online influence for marketers. What will it all look like?

Search becomes Artificial Intelligence. Right now, search engines merely seek to show you something relevant to the keywords you typed in based on much-guarded, mysterious, and ever-changing algorithms. But these algorithms are limited because they are based on keywords, and as even Shakespeare lamented, words have their limitations. As the semantic web becomes a reality, search engine technology will break free of words and actually gain an essential understanding of what web pages ARE - beyond the words on them. This will make search engines more like a search “brain”, which will be able to synthesize the web to meet your needs - once it understands what those needs are.

Your identity unlocks your web. But even if next-generation search engines understand the web better than ever before, the understanding of what you need is still limited to the keywords you input, right? Well, there are big changes there as well. OpenID is the movement to unlock your identity from the websites where it is most established (think LinkedIn, Facebook, or MySpace profiles) and make it portable, such that when you arrive at a new website it will be able to know who you are. This goes beyond solving the inconvenience of managing a multitude of login profiles - it means that websites could understand your interests, your web usage, your shopping habits (provided you let them). The implications are sweeping. The web can then unfold itself to you in a way that it doesn’t for anyone else, and the gatekeepers for making that happen will be the next-generation search engine. Google and others will eventually know you, and know the web, such that it might at times seem as if it is reading your mind.

The web as one big social network. If you unlock your identity from any specific website, it follows that you will also be able to unlock your social connections in the same way. An unlocked set of connections that you have to other people is often referred to as your “social graph.” You may be thinking how nice it will be that you won’t have to put all that work in to “friend” people as much, you’ll only have to do it once and then you can take it with you. Actually, the way that is done will change too. Friending will cease to be the main means of establishing your social graph. You see, the communication technology you are using (for older folks it is email, for younger folks it is IM and texting) is listening. It’s learning who you communicate with and how often, and about the length and nature of that communication. It knows more about your true social graph than you probably do, and in the future it will be able to make that graph portable and attach it to your now-portable identity. Signs of this happening are already evident. Google’s OpenSocial platform and Social Graph API are great indicators.

The web experience in 2015 will be one where you take your identity and your network with you, and semantic search engines and websites will respond (if you let them) by showing you where your friends are and what content most meets your needs.

How does this affect online influence and marketing? Some of that is already being explored by the folks who are dealing with marketing in the insulated social networking environments that exist today. The successes and failures there are being well documented and adding to professional understanding of best and worst practices, so I won’t try to cover that ground here.

The key thing to understand about this 2015 vision is that in the future social networks won’t be a side attraction to the main flow of information on the Internet - they will be the Internet. Those who explore and begin to understand the dynamics of that new environment by playing in it today will be well-positioned to lead, while others may be left behind.

Roger von Oech’s classic “A Whack on the Side of the Head” just turned 25. I used this book a lot in college and at my first agency job. We’d do a few of the exercise to kick start our creative sessions. This led to numerous fresh ideas.

The 25th Anniversary Edition of this creative classic has just been released. It is updated and features many new exercises, puzzles and more. There’s a good interview with von Oech at Guy Kawasaki’s blog on Sun’s SMB site.

Check out Roger von Oech’s Creative Think blog. My favorite part is his online creative whack. Just click on Roger’s photo at the top of the page and a new creative exercise comes up. A few of my favorites include Avoid Arrogance, Imagine You’re the Idea and Slay a Dragon.

Whether you’re working on an online community, creating original content or writing for a blog – these brain teasers will help you stay on your creative toes.

Here’s a quick follow up to my recent post about Tony Hsieh and Zappos. I’m pleased to report that the company delivers on its WOW promise. Shortly after placing my order at www.Zappos.com on Wednesday, I received an email stating:

“Although you originally ordered Standard (4 to 5 business days) shipping and handling, we have given your order special priority processing in our warehouse and are upgrading the shipping and delivery time frame for your order. Your order will ship out today and be given a special priority shipping status so that you can receive your order even faster than we originally promised!

Please note that this is being done at no additional cost to you. It is simply our way of saying thank you for being our customer.”

Sure enough on Thursday my shipment arrives, complete with the cool Paul Frank monkey shirt for my son Ayrton. He’s wearing it proudly at school today. It’s always good to know another company that truly values relationships with customers.

Powered recently updated our web site. This update includes a series of videos detailing things such as social commerce, consumer engagement and the gratitude effect. These videos can be viewed on the Powered web site or at the Powered page on YouTube.

Here’s a sample video about the Gratitude Effect.
Learn what the gratitude effect is, where it originated, and how Powered has implemented it into its social commerce programs.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal is an interesting piece on how big brands are using social networking software to establish their own mini-networks to act as focus groups for the development of new products and services.

Some key outtakes:

• The article highlights the creation of the “I Love My Dog” network by Del Monte whose 400 members actually collaborated with the brand to conceive “Snausages Breakfast Bites” - a breakfast food for dogs that tastes like eggs and bacon.
• Del Monte’s product conception cycle took 6 months instead of 12 due to the continuous availability of this group of dog lovers.
• The article sites engaging content as the biggest challenge:

. . . the consumer companies that run these private networks face the constant risk of member boredom – and ultimately, member flight . . . the companies that set them up have to constantly add games and other features – as well as provide incentives such as coupons, giveaways and sneak peeks at new products – to keep members around.

• Other example of brands doing this are Coca Cola, Walt Disney, Proctor & Gamble, and Sylvan Learning Center (who has a group of mothers they use to test ad campaigns).
• According to Inside Research, spending on proprietary panels came to $40 MM in 2007, and will grow to $69 MM in 2008.

The article mentioned that Myspace and other big networks are looking at providing the ability for brands to tap into segments of their user base for this purpose.

What does this mean in the broader context of Social Commerce? I think it highlights the importance of data - and the resulting insight - that these types of buying communities can generate for a brand. Most social commerce communities get launched to educate and aid the consumer in the research and buying process, while capitalizing on that engagement to learn more about their audience as a side activity. This trend indicates that there is an opportunity to move even further, growing the focus from learning about the consumer to learning from the consumer.

A newly released study by Nielson Co. indicates that products placed in “emotionally engaging” television shows were recognized by 43% more consumers. The Nielsen Product Placement Valuation Study involved more than 10,000 individuals, 200 consumer brands and 50 programs.

Essentially the study states that the more a viewer enjoys and is engaged by a TV show, the more likely they are to have positive feelings for brands that appear in the show. The same also holds true for ad spots during the show. The effect is multiplied with a combination of product placement and advertising.

Results varied across program categories, with dramas scoring the highest. “Dramas have the most to gain from higher viewer enjoyment: positive brand feelings increased a blockbuster 198% during highly enjoyable dramas.”

No matter the media format, connecting emotionally with consumers is essential for successful advertising.